Discontinuity of Russia’s Policy: Kosovo and South Ossetia

Even if they do not have anything in common, Kosovo and South Ossetia became closer in last two weeks that they were ever before. Kosovo declared independence from Serbia in February 2008 that is recognized by about 45 world countries. Russia, backing Serbia in this issue, strongly opposes this independence arguing that such act creates precedence for every separatist region all around the world, especially mentioning those in Georgia; Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

Almost half a year after the Kosovo’s declaration of independence, Georgia Army Forces suddenly attacked South Ossetia trying to reestablish control over the breaking province. South Ossetia declared independence from Georgia within collapse of Soviet Union, which was not recognized by any state, including Russia. From that time until present South Ossetia (together with Abkhazia and Nagorno-Karabakh) represent a so-called “frozen conflict”.

What was the real reason of suddenly Georgian military operation and did Mikheil Saakashvili had Western (namely the US) support is not very important, since small countries were and will always be an element in the foreign policies of big ones. What is important is that Saakashvili made a terrible political and strategic mistake by using a military option for resolving a political problem.
Russian reaction against prospective NATO member presents her standpoint regarding NATO’s further enlargement toward Russia.

Russia’s respond against Georgian military operation was incredible fast and brutal. Bombing all Georgian military assets around whole country forced Georgian Army to withdraw. First military operation outside the Russian Federation completed with totally success. As every winner, Russia dictates peace criteria. The most interesting statement made by Russian officials was statement of Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, who said that Russia supports the position of Georgia's separatist South Ossetia (and Abkhazia) region in talks on their future status. Vladimir Lavrov, Russian Foreign Minister also argued that no document or agreement that includes words as “territorial integrity of Georgia” will be accepted by his country. All this means that Russia strongly supports secession of Georgia’s breakaway provinces which is in serious contradiction with Russian stand regarding Kosovo.

Such Russian standpoint puts Serbia in a difficult position, since Serbia still counts on Russian support in UN Security Council. So, if Russia raises her voice for South Ossetia’s independence from Georgia, Serbia will lose her most important ally and stay absolutely alone in her fight against Kosovo’s independence. On the other hand, Russian encouraging of the independence declaration of the Georgian provinces and their recognition will verify widely accepted opinion that Russian support to Serbia on Kosovo issue was just a continuation of Putin’s “confrontation policy”.

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